Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Top 10 Observations from Week 4 (Packers @ Vikings)

1. Everybody in the entire sports world knew that this game was a big game. First of all it's the biggest rivalry game that the Packers have going right now. That in and of itself makes it an important game. Secondly, this is a division game making it an important game. Finally we all know the Favre aspect that was in this game making it a highly rated, entire nation watching affair. The coaches don't like each other, the quarterbacks seemingly don't like each other and it was Brett Favre vs. the Green Bay Packers. Everybody knew how big of a game this really was. For how important this game was to the Packers it is completely unacceptable to have so many drops, turnovers, sacks and penalties basically giving away the game before it even began. Over the first three weeks the Packers have had problems with sacks, drops, and penalties but in this game they added turnovers to the list. This was a game that the Packers were supposed to play their best and really rally around Aaron Rodgers and send a message to Brett Favre and the Vikings. Instead it sent a message that the Packers are a sloppy football team that has absolutely no rhythm whatsoever right now. In a game of this magnitude the huge amount of self inflicted errors is extremely alarming and is the number one reason to come away worried after this game.

2. A couple of weeks ago I stated that the sack problem was a major issue but that Aaron Rodgers holding onto the ball was the least of the worries. On Monday, Aaron Rodgers held onto the ball way too long and it is now becoming a problem. The biggest issue that Aaron Rodgers has right now is not getting rid of the ball on first and second down. Every quarterback, even the great ones, have some weakness. For so long Brett Favre would throw passes into coverage just to avoid a sack, so far Aaron Rodgers instead of forcing the ball is taking the sack. If Aaron Rodgers can just get rid of the ball on first and second down it will help the Packers stay in manageable down and distances. If he takes a sack on third down it is less of a problem. It's not an awful trait because many times he makes so many things happen with his ability to move out of the pocket. As an example the huge touchdown to Jermichael Finley would have never happened had it not been for Rodgers ability to keep the play alive. It is important to not take the sack and stick with the progressions on 1st and 2nd downs so that on 3rd down its not 3rd and 10+ yards. Out of the 8 sacks on Monday I really only counted 1-2 sacks that were direct results of the offensive line not protecting through the progression. Rodgers needs to take a solid portion of the blame on Monday.

3. The Packers have to find a way to get Greg Jennings involved in the offense. Green Bay has always done a good job of not trying to force the ball to a specific player and instead try to find the open player but a good coach finds a way to get the ball in the hands of their best players. Greg Jennings is the Packers best offensive weapon and through the first 4 weeks he has basically been shut out. If the Packers had Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss or Andre Johnson I guarantee they would try and make getting the ball to them a priority, it should be no different for Jennings.

4. I have no idea what to make out of the Packers current defense. Individually Cullen Jenkins, B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, Johnny Jolly, Brandon Chillar, Desmond Bishop, Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, Clay Matthews, Brady Poppinga, Aaron Kampman, Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Tramon Williams and Nick Collins are all better than average defensive players. They all have playmaking ability and have all shown the ability to succeed within either system over the past two years. As a team however the Packers simply aren't getting the job done. They are one of the best playmaking defenses in all of football but they are extremely inconsistent and have an extremely hard time getting off the field on 3rd down. It's a possibility that they still aren't completely entrenched in the 3-4 defense yet but right now the Packers have to pick it up on defense if they want to win football games because they are far from a championship defense at this point in the season.

5. One area that the Packers can build on is their run defense the last two weeks. The Packers played the best running back in football this week in Adrian Peterson and one of the best running backs last week in Steven Jackson. Both weeks they did a good job of containing and keeping the running backs from making big plays. Jackson got his yards but didn't gouge the Packers repeatedly. Peterson never got going and the Packers were even able to strip the ball from him and return it for a touchdown. Add those two performances with their performance against Matt Forte and the Packers have been very good against the run in 75% of the games and against some pretty good running backs. Now it's up to the pass defense to get more pressure and lock down the receivers.

6. The Packers had the right game plan on defense against Minnesota but their secondary and defensive line didn't pull through in the passing game. The Packers loaded up against the run and were concentrated on not letting Adrian Peterson beat them. This was 100% the right philosophy but in turn what it did was make Brett Favre throw the ball to beat them and gave him opportunities to do so. The bad news was that Brett Favre beat the Packers defense repeatedly. There were times that he was given way too much time and other times where he was able to fit the ball into some tight spots but overall the Packers couldn't stop Favre and the Vikings pass offense.

7. The bye week could not come at a better time for the Packers. The Packers are a 2-2 team right now and really they have played like a 2-2 team. The win against the Bears is a quality win and they beat the Rams which was expected. The losses to the Vikings and Bengals weren't pretty but those two teams are a combined 7-1. With the bye week coming up the Packers will have the ability to address their offensive line issues, possibly getting Clifton and even Tauscher back, and settling down their defense who could also get Atari Bigby back. After the bye they then have games against the Lions and the Browns to hopefully build momentum and finally get in a rhythm. If all goes well they will be 4-2 before their 2nd matchup with Favre and the Vikings in Lambeau.

8. The defensive front 7 is in serious need of a true, consistent playmaker. Take a look at some of the top defenses in all of football and each of them have a playmaker that the other team constantly has to scheme against. The Giants have multiple on their defensive line, the Steelers have their outside linebackers, the Ravens have H. Ngata, the Jets have Kris Jenkins and so on and so forth. Right now the Packers have plenty of solid performers but not one person who strikes fear in the heart of their opponents. If will take that type of player for the Packers to become a top 5 defense.

9. Maybe the most frustrating thing about Brett Favre playing for the Vikings is his ability to not turn the ball over so far this year. For years and years and years coaches Mike Holmgren, Mike Sherman, Mike McCarthy, Ray Rhodes and quarterback coaches Tom Clements, Darrell Bevell, Andy Reid, amongst others have all tried to get Brett Favre to play with less wreckless abandon and with a more conservative approach. For the most part Favre continued to turn the ball over. Now all of sudden he goes to the Vikings and he is able to flip a switch to not throw passes into triple coverage? Obviously it is a small sampling of games and there is a long season still remaining but so far the most frustrating part of this whole mess is that he is playing the way the Packers have asked him to play for so long and now he's doing it against them.

10. The Vikings have done a really good job of putting together a group of playmakers on offense. Minnesota has now seemingly hit on two major playmakers in the draft over the past 3 years. Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are two players that defenses have to keep an eye on at all times. Add an improving Sidney Rice, a 3rd down back like Chester Taylor, a deep threat in Bernard Berrian, a solid offensive line, and a veteran quarterback like Brett Favre and this offense can at times be a daunting task to defend against. It all comes back to Adrian Peterson though and even while the Packers shut him down on Sunday their focus on him allowed open passing lanes and time to throw the football. At any given time on any given play Peterson and the Vikings offense has the ability to take it to the house for 6.

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